The real estate market in Poland has been at the center of the economic debate for years, reminiscent of a barometer of social mood and financial condition of Poles. Understanding what shapes the current prices of apartments in Poland is crucial not only for people looking for their dream apartment, but also for investors and analysts. Trend analysis requires looking at the intertwining of macroeconomic, demographic, and regulatory factors that together create the current complex landscape.
Price spiral – what drives growth?
The upward trend observed for several years is not a coincidence. This is the result of the synergy of several powerful forces that together have created an environment conducive to the appreciation of real estate value.
Demand stimulants, including government programs, are coming to the fore. Initiatives such as the “Safe Loan 2%”, which, according to data, has been used by over 100 thousand borrowers, have acted as an accelerator. They sharply increased the number of people willing to take stock of the market with a supply that was not able to react flexibly. Similar expectations are associated with the planned “Flat for Start” program.
However, structural imbalances remain a fundamental problem. According to various estimates, m.in. HRE Think Tank, there is a shortage of 1.5 to even 2 million apartments in Poland. This chronic deficit, exacerbated by lengthy administrative processes and rising construction costs (both of materials and labor), makes supply unable to meet the growing aspirations of society.
Two faces of the market: primary versus secondary
When analysing the prices of apartments in Poland, it is a mistake to treat the market as a monolith. The dynamics of prices on the primary and secondary markets are governed by slightly different laws.
The primary market is directly dependent on the condition of development companies, construction costs and land availability. Government programs, which often favor new construction, have a stronger impact on it. Developers, struggling with high financing costs and instability in material prices, have to calculate prices well in advance, which stiffens their negotiating position.
The secondary market, on the other hand, is more fluid and reacts more quickly to changes in sentiment. Prices here are shaped by individual decisions of sellers, as well as by the quality and age of the existing housing stock. Interestingly, during periods of rapid price increases in the primary market, the secondary market often catches up as buyers look for more affordable alternatives.
Apartment prices 2026
Talking about a single, average price per square meter for the whole of Polish is a statistical fiction. The market is deeply geographically polarized. According to NBP data for the fourth quarter of 2023, the average transaction price per square metre on the primary market in Warsaw exceeded PLN 16,000, while in Kielce it oscillated around PLN 7,500.
The largest agglomerations, such as Warsaw, Krakow or Tricity, operate in their own price league. They attract capital, talent and offer the best career prospects. In these locations, the premium market is developing most dynamically, and prices are reaching levels unaffordable for the average buyer. As experts note, the luxury segment is often governed by its own laws, being less susceptible to interest rate fluctuations and more to the general economic situation and the influx of wealthy customers.
Invisible forces shaping the market
In addition to the main factors, apartment prices are influenced by several additional, often underestimated phenomena.
First, the significant impact of migration. The influx of refugees from Ukraine after February 2022 sharply increased demand in the rental market, pushing rents to record levels. This, in turn, has increased the attractiveness of buying apartments as an investment, increasing profitability (ROI) and attracting investment capital to the market.
Secondly, the role of investors. An increasing percentage of apartments, especially in large cities, are purchased for investment purposes. This applies to both individual investors (buyers for rent, pinball players) and the growing role of funds from the PRS (Private Rented Sector) sector, which buy entire packages of apartments for institutional rental.
The Availability Crisis – A Look at Creditworthiness
Rising prices combined with high interest rates have drastically reduced the availability of housing. The creditworthiness of a model family with a net income of PLN 10,000 fell from about PLN 600,000 in 2021 to less than PLN 400,000 at the turn of 2022 and 2023. The housing availability index, which measures how much average annual salary is needed to buy 50 m² in a given city, is approaching 10 for Warsaw, which is one of the highest results in recent years and vividly illustrates the scale of the problem.
Apartment prices 2026 – predictions
Trying to predict the future in such a dynamic market is fraught with risk, but several likely scenarios can be outlined.
In the short term (until the end of 2025), government programmes and monetary policy will remain crucial. Market analysts, m.in from PKO BP, expect the upward trend to continue, although its dynamics should slow down from a dozen to several percent per year. The market cannot grow indefinitely at a double-digit rate; At some point, it will encounter a barrier to society’s purchasing power.
Looking further ahead, to 2026, it is necessary to take into account long-term factors. New regulations may come to the fore, such as the EU EPBD Directive on the energy performance of buildings, which may favour new, energy-efficient construction. Long-term demographic trends, such as an ageing population, could change the structure of demand within a decade.
Housing prices – forecasts
Stabilisation scenario (most likely): Price growth slows down and aligns with inflation. Supply is gradually starting to catch up, and the market is entering a phase of equilibrium after the demand impulses are extinguished.
- Moderate growth scenario: The economy maintains a solid pace of development, and wage growth allows higher prices to be gradually absorbed. The housing deficit is still felt, which maintains a mild upward trend.
- Correction scenario (least likely): It assumes the occurrence of an external economic shock or a sharp collapse in demand. A small, several percent correction in prices would be possible, mainly in obsolete construction or in locations with the highest speculative increases.
To sum up, the Polish real estate market is at a transition point. The era of dynamic growth driven by cheap credit is coming to an end. The future is likely to bring greater stability and normalisation, although permanent price declines in key agglomerations should not be expected. The challenge for the coming years will be to find a balance between supporting buyers and stimulating supply.
Katarzyna Borkowska